Mar 28, 2011

Inside the numbers....

So the thread below has degenerated into a frat pissing contest so perhaps it's time to assess what has changed since saturday. Clearly I can only see the numbers so can only judge in a very basic manner with no particular context. However there were a number of surprises that it would be interesting to hear what people think about.
1. Are Sigma Nu legit? They may have a rep for being weight-lifting meatheads who may be suited for quals but they did ride a good race to finish 8th last year so may be serious contenders. On the basis of 2010 ITTs no-one would have thought them a top ten team but they rode well above that. Once thing for certain is that they have big confidence..last year they went to a third qual attempt but rode with a swagger to easily qualify! I think a top 5 would be an amazing result for them.
2. Cutters rode as well as expected and seen to have a different attitude with Eric Young at the helm. A little more outward 'confidence' and truly playing up to being the supposed villains. It's no surprise they are gonna try and smash the race to pieces so can the other teams do anything about it!
3. Taking pole by over 3 seconds is an impressive feat and DG have put themselves firmly amongst the top contenders. I look forward to seeing how the 3rd and 4th riders do in the series events as the Kelseys showed last year that they can perform on race day.
4. Where the hell did DZ come from? 31st in quals and 25th in the race in 2010, they qualed 9th on saturday! That's a remarkable turnaround!
5. Interesting that Pi Phi chose a pit on the backstretch. They know they'll be the most watched team on race day given the number of laps Caroline will be riding. It seems like a sound strategy to get out of the way and do their own thing. Will it work out? One of the intriguing subplots of the week will be to see how the other Pi Phi girl's ride at ITTs. We all know Caroline will one of the top three riders on the track but will she have better support this year?
6. What's going on with Acacia and Fiji? I'll give the latter the benefit of the doubt that they were too cautious on their second attempt (at 8.30am) but they almost make a terminal cock-up. Acacia hasn't been a power in a few years and the alum must be 'interested' to see Tom S on the home stretch with the Sigma Chi.
7. The top four rows of the Mens field are a mix of the usual contenders and then a few teams new to such rarifed air. It'll be intriguing to see if Air Force, LAMP, CRU and the Evans Scholars can do the more difficult job of being race day performers rather than just four lap wonders. I'm liking CRU and HC? (difficult to judge form on a 3rd qual run) to be battling for the top 5.
8. What's up with ZBT? After the excitement of getting in the race last year missing out again this year is criminal. It really isn't that hard to get in if you do the training!
9. ITTs on Wednesday and for what it's worth-
Mens top 5 (in no particular order): Two Cutters, a PDT, a Sigma Chi and a Beta.
Womens top 5: A Teter, a Pi Phi, two DGs and an AGD.

Have at it, just over 2 weeks until race day. The long-taper has already began!

80 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree with your numbers on the men's side. Women I think: a Pi Phi, a DG, a AGD, and two Teter. They return three from a winning team, hard to believe one of them won't step up to join CVK.

Anonymous said...

get into the details and list the riders... I think top 3 will be Van Kooten, Brown, and Arnesen.

Anonymous said...

Brown has a pulled quad. That may have an effect, or maybe she's just being overly dramatic.

Anonymous said...

Kent will win ITT's by a narrow margin over VanKooten. Balchan for 3rd

Anonymous said...

Balchan will definitely be in the mix of the top three.

Anonymous said...

You left out my boy. Top 5 for Joel Newman.

SNU or Die. #Can't WAIT

Zabel

Anonymous said...

What team will win ITT's from a white jersey perspective?

I see:
1. Sigma Chi
2. Cutters
3. Beta
4. Delts
5. Hoosier Climber

What teams will show themselves to be weak?

1. Fiji
2. Grey Goat
3. Black Key
4. Phi Delt
5. Snu

Levi Fratheimer said...

FIJI, Phi Delts, GGC, BKB and SNU will show themselves to be weak in ITT's? You must be crazy they will smash it..FIJI already will win the Dixie for moving up 25+ places in the race.

Anonymous said...

Big crash at the track today. 10+ bikes down. Any of the big guns hurt? Also, will someone please tell IUSF to get their act together and fix turn 4?!?!?

Anonymous said...

What is the deal with the yellow flag people sitting in the middle of the field. How exactly are the riders to know if there is an inciden up the track? Are they to be looking to the center of the field. I rarely criticize IUSF, but when it comes to safety, all those involved deserve better.

Anonymous said...

SNU was safe. Thats all that matters.

Anonymous said...

How is it possible that 2 Acacia Alums are coaching other Fraternity teams, when Acacia is in the tank? Were is your loyalty, Brothers?

Anonymous said...

$$$

Anonymous said...

I agree about IUSF not being very aware of crashes. Last week, too, the only way to be aware of a crash was by everyone yelling "Yellow flag." And maybe fifteen, twenty seconds later the flag would be up, but no announcement would come on. Come on IUSF...
And fix the track up, too. Not safe.

Anonymous said...

"How is it possible that 2 Acacia Alums are coaching other Fraternity teams, when Acacia is in the tank? Were is your loyalty, Brothers?"

Bortz told the alumni who had convinced Tom to return that he would rather stick with Kevin V. & Kurt G. It was after that Tom was contacted by a Sigma Chi alum. He agreed to coach them for free as he did Acacia, Theta and does for Wing It.

Anonymous said...

Nice! Does Courtney have a contract and or agent with Delts. If it's more than $1 someone should shout "Refund", frat!

Todd said...

ITT schedule up.

http://iusf.indiana.edu/little500/rider_info/spring-series.html

Delts seemed to race pretty well under Courtney's guidance last year.

Anonymous said...

As much shit that Courtney takes I'd say he is definitely a top-tier coach. His teams are consistently in the top five regardless of how much you like or dislike the guy. Many don't support his strategy but like the old saying goes, "If it ain't broke don't fix it."

Anonymous said...

Agree and diagree, agree that as I look over past results u could actually argue that no other coach has been a consistently successful, other that Kirham (of course), esp. when you factor in coaching Delts and TMT in 2010 to 2nd and 4th, Disagree I have heard him yelling at his riders to never pull and never attack, never makes any sense because you will never win with that mentality, but that is how they roll.
Whatever, if they seem to be happy with that, "That's why God made the Cutters, BABY!" C-U-T-T-E-R-S

Anonymous said...

Who has the best chance of upsetting Young in ITTs? Is there a sigma chi? A phi delt? Maybe even a fellow cutter?

Anonymous said...

Ha upset Young? You'd have a better chance finding two frat guys who don't like playing who's in my mouth

Anonymous said...

The real question, will Young be in a Bissell skin suit Wednesday night?

Anonymous said...

'Bishop a good coach?!' I don't know what you've been cooking up but you better make sure to open the windows and watch out your trailer doesn't catch fire!

Anonymous said...

who's going to be the geek this year that wears an aero helmet during a 4 lap ITT on a cinder track???

Anonymous said...

That aero helmet makes all the difference, talk to the Beta Kappa Betas about that.

Anonymous said...

Just talk to Sasha Land about the aero helmet. I heard the hollowed out gourd he used in ITTs in 06 was worth 10 seconds in the wind tunnel. Its science.

Anonymous said...

Is Steve Sharp still around? Anyone think he can best Young in ITT's this year??

Anonymous said...

holy crap, I just noticed that the last rider has an 11pm start time, HAH! tons of riders this year.

Anonymous said...

ITT's top 5 predictions anyone?

1. Young (for sure, dont even kid yourself)
2. ?
3. ?
4. ?
5. ?

Anonymous said...

11pm start time? They should put the Kappas in that final heat. That's when they start working at their best.

Anonymous said...

BAM!

Anonymous said...

1) young
2) Depasse
3) Bailey
4) sharp
5) Anderson

Anonymous said...

Is there going to be a Fantasy Little 5 this year before tomorrow night's ITTs?!

Anonymous said...

Top 5 all-time ITT's:

1) Arnesen 02:15.7 2005
2) Arnesen 02:17.6 2006
3) Davis 02:17.8 2005
4) Young 02:18.2 2009
5) Land 02:18.9 2007

With all the buzz about the track conditions it will be exciting to see what Young is able to throw down this year!

Anonymous said...

Work hard, play hard bitches

Cowboy Troy said...

1 Young
2 Sharp
3 [surprise, not a cutter]
4 Boeglin
5 Anderson

jawaller said...

James. Coudright.

Anonymous said...

The real battle will be on the women's side. The men's side is a lock for Young. Between Brown, CVK, and Kent should be a good battle.

Anonymous said...

1. Young
2. Boeglin
3. Sharp
4. Coudright
5. Anderson
6. Ellis
7. Bailey
8. Fish
9. Green
10. Morrow

Todd said...

A little history you might want to consider in your predictions, the Cutters have averaged 3 riders in the top ten of ITTs since 2004.

Anonymous said...

History has no influence on the here and now. What Sasha and Bishop and Young have done in the past have no bearing on what Lusky and Depassee can do tonight.

Anonymous said...

I'm going to make a bold prediction and say Young doesn't get in top 10. I predict that he's too fast for the track in its current state and slides out in 3. You heard it hear first.

Chris said...

Well history cannot predict exact finishes, but when a program is in place and delivers the same results year after year, the liklihood is good of history repeating itself. Especially with 2 of the best riders on the track and husky lusky at the helm. Sprinkle in a couple rookies for some top 20's too.

Anonymous said...

2 of the best riders on the track? Young, obviously. Where is the 2nd?

-Utterly confused

Anonymous said...

Woj,

I thought Lisa rode for Teter? On the IUSF ITT list they have her with out a team. Is she a free agent?

Chris said...

She rides for Teter but has to sit out this year because she rode for a diff team last year. They couldn't list a team name because of that.

Chris said...

Depasse's ITT on the road is about even with Young for longer distances. He'll be there. I'd say 2nd but def top 5 in my opinion.

Anonymous said...

Husky won't even finish in the top 50. Looking at the past 2 years he finished 49th in 09 and 62nd last year so Chris you are severely mistaken if you think Cutters will place 3 in the top 20

Anonymous said...

1) Young
2) Morrow
3) Baily
4) Sharp
5) Anderson

Ditto to the question about fantasy Little 5? Any word?

Anonymous said...

Did it snow / rain enough to get some moisture on the track? If not I could see some people taking some spills.

Anonymous said...

I heard that if Young doesn't win tonight that Bissell is pulling his contract offer? Truth to this?

Talk about pressure if it is.

Anonymous said...

Yep that's what I heard. Bissell are sending the CEO of the 'attachments-to-vacuum-round-a-corner' division to the track this eve. S/He's going to sit in the press box watching every ITT looking for the next 'big-thing'. If King Eric doesn't beat the Hans' ITT record they are going to offer the ATO rider his contract instead...as soon as he loses those extra 20lbs. Gospel.

Anonymous said...

any early updates from the track?

Todd said...

Coudright Delts 2 30.2
Stine Air Force 2 31.68
Newman SNU 2 32.23
Ray Emanon 2 36.73
Nowinski Wright 2 37.58

Anonymous said...

We're getting pretty close to the "power hour"; how does the track look out there?

Todd said...

Kinn Black Key Bulls 2 29.96
Coudright Delts 2 30.2
Harbison Cutters 2 31.22
Stine Air Force 2 31.68
Newman SNU 2 32.23
Brookshire Sig Nu 2 33.78
Lenard DTD 2 34.08
Duncan Theta Chi 2 36.15
Ray Emanon 2 36.73
Nowinski Wright 2 37.58

Rick said...

Can someone send women's result updates as well? This is CVK's Dad currently overseas...

Todd said...

Ottenweller-Army 2:47.22; Tharnstrom-Alpha Chi Omega 2:48.13; Caughlin-Teter 2:48.59;
LaPlant-KD 2:49.27;
Moeller-Wing It 2:49.72

Todd said...

@Rick -

Van Kooten-Teter 2:39.41
Balchan-AGD 2:42.14
Brown-Pi Beta Phi 2:42.55
Ottenweller-Army 2:47.22
Kent-DG 2;47.62

Todd said...

Incomplete but here's a summary:

Young Cutters 2 22
Depasse Cutters 2 27.28
McDermott Delta Chi 2 27.99
Sharp Phi Delta Theta 2 28.19
Fish Sig Chi 2 29.21
Kinn Black Key Bulls 2 29.96
Coudright Delts 2 30.2
Harbison Cutters 2 31.22
Stine Air Force 2 31.68
Newman SNU 2 32.23
Brookshire Sig Nu 2 33.78
Lenard DTD 2 34.08
Duncan Theta Chi 2 36.15
Ray Emanon 2 36.73
Nowinski Wright 2 37.58

Rick said...

Woohoo! Thanks Todd! Did get a text message on CvK's time, but not on rest. Go Teter!

Anonymous said...

I had Brown clocked at 2:39.77. IUSF seriously needs to change their timing system.

Anonymous said...

1.Eric Young – Cutters 02:22.00
2. David Ellis – FIJI 02:26.04
3. RJ Stuart – Delta Tau Delta 02:26.89
4. Kevin Depasse – Cutters 02:27.28
5. Will McDermott – Delta Chi 02:27.99
6. Steve Sharp – Phi Delta Theta 02:28.19
7. Adam Fish – Sigma Chi 02:29.21
8. Andrew Morrow – Sigma Chi 02:29.29
9. Jordan Bailey – Black Key Bulls 02:29.57
10. Dan Kinn – Black Key Bulls 02:29.96
Greg Bortz – Acacia 02:29.98
Eric Anderson – Beta Theta Pi 02:30.07
Jake Rowland – Phi Delta Theta 02:30.12
James Coudright – Delta Tau Delta 02:30.20
Ted Boeglin – FIJI 02:30.82
Sam Harbison – Cutters 02:31.22
Patrick Kinn – Phi Kappa Psi 02:31.51
Zach Stine – Air Force 02:31.68
Zach Lusk – Cutters 02:31.75
John Newman – Sigma Nu 02:32.23
Tyler Lucas – Phi Kappa Psi 02:32.61
Brice Brookshire – Sigma Nu 02:33.78
Nick Lenard – Delta Tau Delta 02:34.08
John Strickland – Sigma Chi 02:34.48
Aaron Frazin – Sigma Alpha Mu 02:34.52
Matt Andress – FIJI 02:34.56
Will Boeglin – FIJI 02:34.57
Michael Waymire – Cru Cycling 02:34.57
Brian Holthouse – Gray Goat Cycling 02:34.63
Bob Smallman – Hoosier Climber? 02:34.74

Chris said...

All 4 Cutters in the top 20! I told ya so!

Anonymous said...

4 F1J1's in the top 30... Interesting

Anonymous said...

I had Brown at 2:40.16

Anonymous said...

Every year with this crap; you have NO idea about the race. 4 laps is NO indicator, none! and I think I speak for every one, when I say, SIGMA NU, .......Shut the *()&(^(&%^k up and be thankful there isn't a "mercy rule" in Little 5.

Anonymous said...

Really none huh? Caitlin and Young win and won the race last year. Ellis was 2nd in the race last year. Who are you talking to anyway? Some time trialers get gipped with the short effort but other thsan that they are sort of reliable unless someone was having a bad day then it's understandable if they are much faster on raceday.

Anonymous said...

You are right. Cutters will win! Ink it!!!

Anonymous said...

I think it might be time for Tom to get his timing system to IUSF.

Pam wake up, when two riders have a time difference of a bike throw in a heat and they end up three seconds apart, that makes timing ITT's at all look foolish. I watched the CvK/Caroline heat and was shocked to see a time gap of 3 sec on a near photo finish.

People train all year and you give them four freezing gunners with stop watches. Turn two was slow clocking the whole power hour while turn one times seemed a bit fast. I know this is Little Five and that is part of the game, but really this is just foolishness.

Eric Anderson said...

Cutters-27
Phi Delt-36
Delts-41
BKB-42
Sigma Chi-50
Fiji-57
Phi Psi-60
Beta-73
Snu-73
Acacia-120
Gray Goat-123
Hoosier Climber?-132
Kappa Sig-143
Theta Chi-150
Delta Chi-163
Cru-166
Air Force-182
Sammy-192
Wright-207
DU-211
Emanon-213
Dodds-219
Achtung-221
LAMP-222
DSP-223
Sig Ep-229
Evans Scholars-234
Pike-235
Everyone else-237

With a healthy West, Phi Delt might have knocked off the Cutters.

And just for fun, here's the scores if you score 4 riders and don't count everyone below 79th place as 79th place.

Cutters-52
BKB-72
Delts-73
Phi Delt-83
Fiji-93
Sigma Chi-102
Snu-104
Phi Psi-109
Beta-132
Hoosier Climber?-195
Gray Goat-198
Acacia-241
Cru-262
Kappa Sig-264
Theta Chi-288
Delta Chi-298
Wright-336
DU-351
Air Force-358
Sammy-377
Sig Ep-397
Emanon-399
#JungleExpress-425
Pike-432
LAMP-446
Beta Sigma Psi-461
Skulls-467
DSP-496
SAE-562

Would definitely be interesting to compare these numbers with the Quals results...

I did women last year too, but I'm done number crunching on the night. Enjoy.

Anonymous said...

Cutters strongest team in the RACE? Since when has that been the case?

(Add typical ITT's don't mean jack comment here, attach excuse, as well as wait until MnO to make a decision about White Jersey race. Ok I got it)

Anonymous said...

Unless you where using long exposure film was the Brown/CVK a photo finish. From up in the press box CVK won by a few bike lengths. 3 seconds? No, but by no means a photo finish.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the 4 rider number crunch, that's interesting and quick turn around!

Anonymous said...

Ellis was second in the race last year? I could have sworn the order was cutters, phi delts, fiji, delts?

Which race were you watching?

Chris said...

Fiji was a lap and a three quarters down, and the 3/4 laps was erased by the restart. They restarted 1 lap down, secretly unlapped themselves to no ones knowledge but the Cutters, and then finished 2nd in the sprint. 1 guy behind the Cutter fence (Todd) figured it out and let everyone know. Thank god for that guy!

Anonymous said...

Todd has now saved my life in more ways then one, what an incredible individual. I wish he was my father.

Chris said...

He might be your father.

Todd said...

Thanks for the compliment Woj, but I don't need a paternity suit.

Anonymous said...

Looks like they messed up the seeding again. Young should be going against 32 and 33, not 17 and 33. This is the same for 2 should have 31, instead of 17.

This seems like a yearly problem. You would think they could just have a blank template with the proper seedings, and fill in names along the way. It would not even cost anything.