Apr 20, 2010

Official BVN Little 500 2010 Odds- lets gamble!

At the risk of blowing my own trumpet I got my early picks pretty much spot on (including predicting the demise of ATO). However it's now gametime so how are the BVN bookies thinking about the 2010 race? Let's roll the dice!

Womens L5 23rd April 2010
Relatively long odds reflect a weak womens field with a couple of dominant riders on teams of very different strengths.

Teter 5/1 fav- CvK can win solo or in a long sprint and has an OK team to keep her close. I don't see them attacking but will be there at the end. Teter are due a win and this should be the year.
Delta Gamma 6/1- Deep team but can they keep Half fresh enough to have enough to outpace CvK in the finale. Will look for an opportunity to go it alone late on.
Theta 6/1- Will be aggressive and need to be solo to win. Apparently there is a plan brewing and they have the firepower to implement it well. Dickman will be a L5 monster.
Kappa Kappa Gamma 8/1- L5 relevant again but will need to be solo to win. Coach Naas' recent pedigree is without equal so don't count them out.
Army 10/1- Quiet and always effective with no finisher or difference maker.
AGD 10/1- See Army....
Pi Phi 11/1- Brown is prepared for a 90+ lap effort and being on the lead lap would be a magnificent achievement. It's difficult to see it happen and Brown having an effective sprint finish. However they had longer odds last year......
Wing-It 12/1- TP indicated that they are coming to the boil at the right time but it's a year too soon for them.
Kappa Delta 12/1- The five year window is closing. We could see Balbach riding 70laps but she has never shown a killer instinct. Oh for Jenna Cerone.
Gamma Phi 15/1- Don't seem to have progressed since last year so a top 8 is their ceiling.
25/1- The Field. Every other team would be overjoyed with a top ten.

Mens L5 24th April
The three year domination of the Cutters casts a long shadow over the race. Other teams have been mostly quiet with 95% of the BVN comments concerning one team. Could the fraternal alliance become a reality?

Cutters 3/1 fav- Until someone shows they can beat them they must be favored. Don't let TP cloud your judgement as they are in good position. Even if Young has to do more laps than planned he is unbeatable if in position at the white flag.
PDT 7/2- Hard work behind the moto has taken this squad to another level and they will ride aggressively. If they can stay lucky and upright they roll 4 deep like few other teams.
Phi Psi 4/1- A four-deep team with Mercer desperate to be in it at the end. His talent on the final lap is somewhat a mystery and he could be the closest to Young.
BKB 4/1- Aside from Quays MnO they have had an anonymous spring but they are deep. Need to be solo to win and will hopefully try to make it happen.
Fiji 6/1- A dissapointing spring but showed well in TP so seem to be ready to go. An
alliance with PDT or Phi Psi to remove the GDIs would be fun to see.
Sigma Chi 8/1- Strong and deep but maybe a little too green to take the initiative needed to win the race. A fresh Morrow in the finale would be dangerous.
Gray Goat 8/1- Just don't to be able to put it together even with their obvious talent. Would need to be in a small group at the end to have a chance.
Beta 10/1- A remarkable turnaround from '09 and this will be an important learning experience on the road to really contending in 2011.
DTD 12/1- Found a good level after their big losses from '09. Coudright could be a good finisher although I'm sure wishes the 46*18 was a little larger!
Delta Chi 14/1- Another team with a steep learning curve who should be contending in 2011.
Acacia 15/1- Seem to be well prepared but have no standouts to rely on when the going gets real tough.
DU 16/1- DRR makes the guys a last lap contendor but will find it tough to get there with the leaders
Wright 18/1- A second top ten in 3 years is a possibility.
Hoosier Climber 18/1- Almost as green at the top level as their hair and a top ten would be a great result
Sigma Nu 20/1- These guys seem out of control so anything is possible! I like their style!
The Field 22/1- a few others may touch the top ten but not compete for the win.

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

love the post....I am pretty much in agreement with you on the Men's side...Methinks you are overestimating AGD/army and underestimating Pi Phi...Pi Phi is going to have the full support of veteran Cutter coaching...Both races are going to be VERY exciting

Anonymous said...

If Brown rides 90 laps, how will they get the exchanges in? I believe you have to have 5?

Kaleb said...

The women do have to complete five. There is certainly plenty of room for five exchanges in the ten laps that Caroline hypothetically doesn't ride. Two or three lap sets by the other riders between Caroline's sets would accomplish this objective.

As for the men's race, even though I am in it, I cannot help but to say I'd love to see a Mercer/Young sprint at the end of the day. After many views of the 2009 race, I am of the opinion that Niebler could have given Young a run for his money last year with better positioning going into the final lap. I think Mercer could do the same this year... he's strong.

Geraint Parry said...

Figure it out on your own, not using calculator.

Anonymous said...

My point was if they are expecting the rest of her team to just jump in ride 2 hard laps and then exchange again that will be doom for their team. You are giving no time to catch the pack and get a burn in two laps.

Anonymous said...

Well, as GP stated during ITT's, Caroline rode 110 impressive laps in last years race. ;)

-Vargo

Anonymous said...

'When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth'!- Conan Doyle

Anonymous said...

Part of sprinting at the end of a race is knowing where to position yourself and when to hit the accelerator. That is even more important in Little 5 due to the track and lack of gearing. As you saw in Miss'N Out when the Phi Delt boys boxed Mercer in that the fastest guy doesn't always win or move on because of positioning alone. I think that it is safe to say that Mercer might not necessarily know how to do this quite yet. I think Mercer is one of the three fastest guys on the track this year. But knowing where to set up for the sprint, having a big jump, and more importantly having the confidence to know you will win is the difference maker between 1st and 2nd. It would probably be best for Phi Psi not to want it to come down to a sprint against Young (assuming Cutters are there at the end).

Anonymous said...

If Pi Phi has the full support of veteran Cutter coaching, 'me thinks' they should have gotten a fourth rider or at least one of the other two girls to sniff a top 50 ITT. Other poster is right noting two laps is difficult. The other girls have to take a clean exchange, get up to speed and chase down the pack. I don't see it in either of the two riders based on ITT times. Cutter coaching failed not training the other girls and Pi Phi finishes 98 laps at best. If it wasn't for this supposed omniscient Cutter coaching and their allegiance/living with Brown, I don't think her or Pi Phi would be getting much talk and the Women's race focus would be on Teter, DG, Theta, KKG and Tom, sorry, Wing It like it should. If Army stays upright this year they can be at the tail end of another women's sprint and I'd put them at 8/1.

For the men's, plenty of teams that have the capability to break apart the pack and put some chaos into the race. Hoping that a team like BKB or a few Greek squads try and sneak away at lap 110 or so to see how teams react. Doubt it will happen but can always hope. Odds look good for all Men's teams.

Anonymous said...

You don't really sneak away on lap 110 unless you qualified 25th and no one realizes you are on the lead lap which is highly unlikely but I believe Men's teter team almost won like that a few years ago until they got screwed on a yellow flag with other teams creeping hardcore without penalty.

Anonymous said...

That is exactly what happened with the Teter team in the early 2000s. Sneak away might have been bad language. I was suggesting that some teams spread the race out, make others react. Have a 1/4 lap lead, push it and push it and push it. You have another team with you, work together, coordinate exchanges, etc. Don't just sit up and wait for the pack, sit in the pack and then hope for a chain to pop or some wreck to happen that you aren't involved in. It would be an exciting race if a team(s) attacked at lap 110 as then we'd see some bike racing.

Anonymous said...

Totally!

Todd said...

"I was suggesting that some teams spread the race out, make others react. Have a 1/4 lap lead, push it and push it and push it. You have another team with you, work together, coordinate exchanges, etc. Don't just sit up and wait for the pack, sit in the pack and then hope for a chain to pop or some wreck to happen that you aren't involved in."

People say this ever year, and every year people refuse to work. Watch the video from last year, the Cutters were off the back, Ren-Jay went hard for two laps and then no one else would work with him. Everyone is always "waiting" and "conserving". Go back and watch the race videos from 2003 through 2009 and you will see a striking resemblance between all the winning teams.

Sitting in and waiting for a sprint is a great way to get to lap 199 but it is not a great way to win Little 5. This doesn't mean you need to lap the field or scramble like the Cutters in 2008 or PDT of 1996 but it does mean you need to work.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Todd. I did see last year's race and have seen every one since 1996. Also have a ring so that gives me clout in some people's eyes. I agree people say this every year but the problem is that they are most likely afraid and weak mentally as in they are trying not to lose instead of trying to win. Only thing teams can work on this week is their mental capacity. That's it.

In my opinion, I wouldn't be worried about race strategy or race planning. For example, teams like FIJI over the years have had the mentality of Rider 1 does 15 laps then Rider 2 does 15, and on and on. Hasn't won them anything lately. I'd say you focus on your mental preparation and hopefully teams can go back over the last few years and build up their own race acumen and experience from watching the tapes. Doing this, they'd likely realize that this whole pack thing that started with Gafombi in 2003 is a waste of most people's time.

There are 200 laps in the race and I'd hope teams realize that there is one of those laps they have a slim chance of winning but another 199 that they can make something happen and increase their odds on that all important last one.

Anonymous said...

"If it wasn't for this supposed omniscient Cutter coaching and their allegiance/living with Brown, I don't think her or Pi Phi would be getting much talk and the Women's race focus would be on Teter, DG, Theta, KKG and Tom, sorry, Wing It like it should."

you are joking, right? because, you know, Caroline didn't win last year or anything. and she didn't come in right behind CVK during Miss-n-out or in ITTs. Nevermind the fact that she rides with the Cutters a lot. Yes, you're right.... Caroline should be totally discounted because she's not worth following on race day. You are right that her girls may not be nearly as good as her and it'll be rough for them to get those fast couple laps in and not lose ground. But Caroline is way stronger than you (and EVERYONE else) are giving her credit for and will make Pi Phi a force to be reckoned with on race day.

Todd said...

To Ringer - It looks like we are saying the same thing. My reference to watching videos was to point out a pattern which you obviously see. The act of watching the video itself is the easy part.

Anonymous said...

Definitely wasn't joking, but I'm glad I got you fired up. To help with clarification, Pi Phi won the race last year. As vital part of that team, Caroline rode a great race, won the sprint and gets to wear the yellow jersey this year. She won't be hard to miss. In my opinion her teammates will be easy to miss. Therefore, Pi Phi, AS A TEAM doesn't factor into my race predictions.

People are giving her plenty of credit as a rider and a strong one too, myself included. The argument was over the HOF selection, but keep living in your made up argument world that EVERYONE isn't giving her credit. We all know how strong she is, just don't see a strong case for HOF yet.

And if the top teams let her sit third and forth wheel all day and tow her around and don't chase her breakouts and push the tempo when she exchanges to a teammate and is off the bike and/or chasing, then I'd agree with you they will be a force. However, there are some smart coaches and riders on the women's side who I don't think will let that happen. See Hewitt from last year as my argument.

Anonymous said...

Agree completely Todd! We are saying the same thing and see it the same way.

Ringer (Some Random @sshole)

Anonymous said...

Phi Psi will drop the hammer at lap 180. guarantee it. No one will be able to hang on!!! Jump on the Mercer bandwagon or be a cutter fan like everyone else

Anonymous said...

How come no one is talking about Hoosier Climber? I've heard they as well have been training through series events and have a monumental peak that is scheduled to erupt early Saturday morning. I say if they can find a way to hold off this peak until 2 on Saturday, they will throw down harder than Snoop Dogg at ZBT thursday night!

Anonymous said...

Young, Feldman, Camara, and Husky Lusky will lap the field 2 times, mark my words.

Anonymous said...

No one is talking about the weather as a factor on race day. I see road/mountain cyclists being more favored in this year's rainy race. Look for teams like GGC, Cutters, PDT and BKB to battle it out at lap 197 for the win.

Todd said...

Camara! LOL - nice.

So basically weather eliminates FIJI and Phi Psi?

Anonymous said...

Just remember.....when it rains, it pours

Anonymous said...

'When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. Except with Leno in late night television. And Cutters coaching.'- Conan O'Brien

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