Mar 29, 2012

ITT analysis

In a change of form (from the usual Cutters love-in), this blog is becoming a vehicle for the Beta Boffins!
An analysis of ITT +/- when compared to Quals!

49 comments:

Anonymous said...

What's with all the Beta media? Lot of pressure for the race. Hope they can perform.

Todd said...

To garner more info, you need to add time gaps on here. You have three guys that can separate, a big pack in 24-25 that can put pressure on the field but won't likely win a sprint, a group that can hold their own 26-29 and then the risky guys. The drop off usually happens around the 40th rider in ITTs independent of the times and it will likely hold true this year.

That's why I commented yesterday that Sigma Chi might be in trouble.

Also, unless Betas wrecks, they will be there.

Geraint Parry said...

This may be early but can I start the lobbying for:
PDT vs DTD
Beta vs Cutters
BKB vs Sigma Chi

matchups in Team Pursuit. The other kids can go play in the sandbox.

nottodd said...

Todd may be onto something. If you add IIT times for each teams top 4, instead of placings PDT@579.023, Cutters@581.15, DTD/BTP@582.55/56, BKB@584.35, SigChi@ 588.7 and ThetaChi@592.72. Cutters are the most consistent amongst their 4 with delts the worst.

Eric Anderson said...

Todd inspired me to graph the data:

Everyone: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/12006576/ITTSeveryone.png

Top 44 separated into his categories: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/12006576/ITTsSeparated.jpg

Major separation for RJ...unreal!

Anonymous said...

Anderson, if you and Laser aren't "pace-pushers" then that graph has no validity

Paul said...

Nice work Anderson. Interesting to look at.

Although people are looking at 4 lap times for sprinters which doesn't directly translate. It definitely shows who the top riders are though.

Todd said...

That graph nails it. Now the real question is, how do you respond?

Eric Anderson said...

I'm done nerding out after this, but, if we assume ITTs are normally distributed (mean was 2:35.64, stdev was 0:07.04), here's the bell(ish) curve that results:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/12006576/NormalizedITT.jpg

Shows the ability gaps even better than my previous chart. RJ had a z-score of -2.41...pretty ridiculous.

Of the top 10 spring series teams, average z-scores of top 4 riders:

Phi Delt (27): -1.542
Cutters (28): -1.478
BKB (34): -1.369
Beta (37): -1.420
Delts (42): -1.418
Sigma Chi (65): -1.191
Theta Chi (71): -1.058
Fiji (116): -0.693
SigEp (121): -0.557
Snu (121): -0.649

To your question, Todd, I'd say one event isn't enough to rule any teams out, but it's certainly looking like there's 5 teams that have differentiated themselves. After Saturday we'll have a pretty good idea of how good of a predictor ITT is of overall success/who stands where. 10-person semis will be a complete crapshoot though, so who knows.

Anonymous said...

Is Beta training for Little 5 or working on an I-Core project?

Anonymous said...

Haha so much analysis. This doesn't mean shit come race day. Love it though.

Anonymous said...

Drafting and crashes negates this but definitely a 5 team race with the probablity of a 3 team race probably at 85% that it will be Cutters, PhiDelt, or Delts.

Anonymous said...

If RJ can ride 100 laps and ride away from people then hes in business.

Anonymous said...

well he's been training with pros so obviously he can does what he wants

Anonymous said...

For equity, similar analysis for the women:

ITT performance, ordered by
Sum Top 4 times Sum Top 3 times
Teter 10:53.3 Teter 08:07.2
Wing It 10:59.5 Theta 08:12.4
Theta 11:01.8 Wing It 08:12.7
DG 11:07.9 DG 08:17.5
KapDelt 11:17.5 KapDelt 08:23.7
KapKapG 11:23.3 KapKappG 08:25.9
Army 11:25.0 Army 08:26.3

Anonymous said...

i think rj is winning because he's humping a d1 athlete. i'm jealous.

Velochamp96 said...

Training with pros or not the gear on the bike is a great equalizer you just have to have cardio not strenght.

Anonymous said...

I believe Rj came in 6th (?) in the 75 mile A's collegiate race at Lindsey Wilson earlier this season, with a strong sprint up an absolute monster of a hill to beat out some pro/1/2 caliber riders. I would say that gives checks to both the lungs and the legs on that young man.

Anonymous said...

Just looked up his results. He got 2nd in a Pro 1/2 crit in St. Louis a couple weeks ago. Best loser...sucks to suck dick head.

West

Anonymous said...

With performance enhancement therapies anything is possible

Anonymous said...

what do these graphs even mean?

Snu

Anonymous said...

Haha so apparently everyone in beta thinks Anderson is weird as fuck...which is probably why he sits alone doing these reports all the time.
Sucks to suck,
-Sig chi

Anonymous said...

Depasse would cut his own grandmother off if he gave him better position

Anonymous said...

Depasse's grandmother could have beaten him in MNO today. Losing to SNU? Embarrassing...

Anonymous said...

SNU ANGRY. SNU DRINK. SNU DRINK BEER

Anonymous said...

Sharp with the win in a turning of the tide coming out of turn 2 much like what happened against him last year! RJ second, Beta's rookie Craggie with 3rd.

Zee

Anonymous said...

Sharp looked strong in the MnO, it was obvious that he had experience in it and it was pretty evident that RJ has not had a lot of practice in this particular event. However, as well all know, the race is a whole different ballgame compared to MnO

Anonymous said...

I agree to the last comment. Seems funny all this talk about RJ is more than likely started/continued by his own "anonymous" posts about himself and others.

Anonymous said...

Rj is a fucking punk. Strong and very gifted rider but an asshole. Hope he wrecks cuz he's the reason west isn't riding. He can say he didn't have anything to do with it but I don't believe it for a second he'll do anything to win. Same thing last year with young; him and delts attended kiels meeting and got west this year.

Anonymous said...

IUSF still has Men's Spring Series wrong. Anyone have an update?

Anonymous said...

6:12-you can call it inexperience on RJ's part if you like, but what I saw was a strong Steve Sharp set a blistering pace and then go into an entirely different gear for the win. Race day will be exciting!

Anonymous said...

Sharp is top dog!

Anonymous said...

and sketchiest rider award goes to craggy from beta

Anonymous said...

or hutch.

Anonymous said...

Craggy looks jacked!

velo said...

wouldn't expect any less with green teaching him how to ride

Anonymous said...

Or Miles from Phi Psi. The kid can't stay upright on a bike. Pretty talented, but he crashed in ITTs and MNO. Avoid that wheel!

Anonymous said...

dry track, everyone looked sketch

-Beta

Anonymous said...

I mean cutters aren't any better they have caused every big wreck on the track this year and I heard they were in one yesterday as well.. sketch to def

Anonymous said...

Lambda Chi caused about 4 wrecks in the preliminary rounds... odds are they or CSF cause the first big one on race day.

Anonymous said...

This graph just reinforces the fact that there are some very undeserving teams in the race.

William said...

10:43 -- Definitely a sketchy rookie at times, I'll be the first to say. The sandbox we were all riding in yesterday didn't help much either. I was just pumped to be out there with the big guns and win some sprints.

RJ has incredible horsepower but Sharp is damn good at positioning himself...I learned a lot just trying to follow his lines. Interesting day for a lot of teams...Let's look to team pursuit. Any matchup predictions?

-Kragie

Anonymous said...

Kragie is a boss for a rookie!

Anonymous said...

Kraige has been good thus far but I think the real rookie story at the moment is Torrance from SigEp. 5th in ITTs and he's apparently only a freshman. Both him and Kraige will be fun to watch in the next few years

Anonymous said...

Uh Smith!

Anonymous said...

Smith isn'ot a rookie, he rode for Wright Cycling his freshman year and is only "ineligble" this year. His top 5 time doesn't count towards Rookie of the Year.

Anonymous said...

I do believe he would qualify under people that will be fun to watch over the next few years.

Anonymous said...

isn't that Smith kid a pro? It was in the IDS. I think that's why he is ineligible.

Anonymous said...

Again an astounding lack of knowlege