In a change of form (from the usual Cutters love-in), this blog is becoming a vehicle for the Beta Boffins!
An analysis of ITT +/- when compared to Quals!
To garner more info, you need to add time gaps on here. You have three guys that can separate, a big pack in 24-25 that can put pressure on the field but won't likely win a sprint, a group that can hold their own 26-29 and then the risky guys. The drop off usually happens around the 40th rider in ITTs independent of the times and it will likely hold true this year.
That's why I commented yesterday that Sigma Chi might be in trouble.
Todd may be onto something. If you add IIT times for each teams top 4, instead of placings PDT@579.023, Cutters@581.15, DTD/BTP@582.55/56, BKB@584.35, SigChi@ 588.7 and ThetaChi@592.72. Cutters are the most consistent amongst their 4 with delts the worst.
I'm done nerding out after this, but, if we assume ITTs are normally distributed (mean was 2:35.64, stdev was 0:07.04), here's the bell(ish) curve that results:
To your question, Todd, I'd say one event isn't enough to rule any teams out, but it's certainly looking like there's 5 teams that have differentiated themselves. After Saturday we'll have a pretty good idea of how good of a predictor ITT is of overall success/who stands where. 10-person semis will be a complete crapshoot though, so who knows.
Drafting and crashes negates this but definitely a 5 team race with the probablity of a 3 team race probably at 85% that it will be Cutters, PhiDelt, or Delts.
ITT performance, ordered by Sum Top 4 times Sum Top 3 times Teter 10:53.3 Teter 08:07.2 Wing It 10:59.5 Theta 08:12.4 Theta 11:01.8 Wing It 08:12.7 DG 11:07.9 DG 08:17.5 KapDelt 11:17.5 KapDelt 08:23.7 KapKapG 11:23.3 KapKappG 08:25.9 Army 11:25.0 Army 08:26.3
I believe Rj came in 6th (?) in the 75 mile A's collegiate race at Lindsey Wilson earlier this season, with a strong sprint up an absolute monster of a hill to beat out some pro/1/2 caliber riders. I would say that gives checks to both the lungs and the legs on that young man.
Haha so apparently everyone in beta thinks Anderson is weird as fuck...which is probably why he sits alone doing these reports all the time. Sucks to suck, -Sig chi
Sharp with the win in a turning of the tide coming out of turn 2 much like what happened against him last year! RJ second, Beta's rookie Craggie with 3rd.
Sharp looked strong in the MnO, it was obvious that he had experience in it and it was pretty evident that RJ has not had a lot of practice in this particular event. However, as well all know, the race is a whole different ballgame compared to MnO
I agree to the last comment. Seems funny all this talk about RJ is more than likely started/continued by his own "anonymous" posts about himself and others.
Rj is a fucking punk. Strong and very gifted rider but an asshole. Hope he wrecks cuz he's the reason west isn't riding. He can say he didn't have anything to do with it but I don't believe it for a second he'll do anything to win. Same thing last year with young; him and delts attended kiels meeting and got west this year.
6:12-you can call it inexperience on RJ's part if you like, but what I saw was a strong Steve Sharp set a blistering pace and then go into an entirely different gear for the win. Race day will be exciting!
I mean cutters aren't any better they have caused every big wreck on the track this year and I heard they were in one yesterday as well.. sketch to def
10:43 -- Definitely a sketchy rookie at times, I'll be the first to say. The sandbox we were all riding in yesterday didn't help much either. I was just pumped to be out there with the big guns and win some sprints.
RJ has incredible horsepower but Sharp is damn good at positioning himself...I learned a lot just trying to follow his lines. Interesting day for a lot of teams...Let's look to team pursuit. Any matchup predictions?
Kraige has been good thus far but I think the real rookie story at the moment is Torrance from SigEp. 5th in ITTs and he's apparently only a freshman. Both him and Kraige will be fun to watch in the next few years
Smith isn'ot a rookie, he rode for Wright Cycling his freshman year and is only "ineligble" this year. His top 5 time doesn't count towards Rookie of the Year.
What's with all the Beta media? Lot of pressure for the race. Hope they can perform.
ReplyDeleteTo garner more info, you need to add time gaps on here. You have three guys that can separate, a big pack in 24-25 that can put pressure on the field but won't likely win a sprint, a group that can hold their own 26-29 and then the risky guys. The drop off usually happens around the 40th rider in ITTs independent of the times and it will likely hold true this year.
ReplyDeleteThat's why I commented yesterday that Sigma Chi might be in trouble.
Also, unless Betas wrecks, they will be there.
This may be early but can I start the lobbying for:
ReplyDeletePDT vs DTD
Beta vs Cutters
BKB vs Sigma Chi
matchups in Team Pursuit. The other kids can go play in the sandbox.
Todd may be onto something. If you add IIT times for each teams top 4, instead of placings PDT@579.023, Cutters@581.15, DTD/BTP@582.55/56, BKB@584.35, SigChi@ 588.7 and ThetaChi@592.72. Cutters are the most consistent amongst their 4 with delts the worst.
ReplyDeleteTodd inspired me to graph the data:
ReplyDeleteEveryone: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/12006576/ITTSeveryone.png
Top 44 separated into his categories: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/12006576/ITTsSeparated.jpg
Major separation for RJ...unreal!
Anderson, if you and Laser aren't "pace-pushers" then that graph has no validity
ReplyDeleteNice work Anderson. Interesting to look at.
ReplyDeleteAlthough people are looking at 4 lap times for sprinters which doesn't directly translate. It definitely shows who the top riders are though.
That graph nails it. Now the real question is, how do you respond?
ReplyDeleteI'm done nerding out after this, but, if we assume ITTs are normally distributed (mean was 2:35.64, stdev was 0:07.04), here's the bell(ish) curve that results:
ReplyDeletehttp://dl.dropbox.com/u/12006576/NormalizedITT.jpg
Shows the ability gaps even better than my previous chart. RJ had a z-score of -2.41...pretty ridiculous.
Of the top 10 spring series teams, average z-scores of top 4 riders:
Phi Delt (27): -1.542
Cutters (28): -1.478
BKB (34): -1.369
Beta (37): -1.420
Delts (42): -1.418
Sigma Chi (65): -1.191
Theta Chi (71): -1.058
Fiji (116): -0.693
SigEp (121): -0.557
Snu (121): -0.649
To your question, Todd, I'd say one event isn't enough to rule any teams out, but it's certainly looking like there's 5 teams that have differentiated themselves. After Saturday we'll have a pretty good idea of how good of a predictor ITT is of overall success/who stands where. 10-person semis will be a complete crapshoot though, so who knows.
Is Beta training for Little 5 or working on an I-Core project?
ReplyDeleteHaha so much analysis. This doesn't mean shit come race day. Love it though.
ReplyDeleteDrafting and crashes negates this but definitely a 5 team race with the probablity of a 3 team race probably at 85% that it will be Cutters, PhiDelt, or Delts.
ReplyDeleteIf RJ can ride 100 laps and ride away from people then hes in business.
ReplyDeletewell he's been training with pros so obviously he can does what he wants
ReplyDeleteFor equity, similar analysis for the women:
ReplyDeleteITT performance, ordered by
Sum Top 4 times Sum Top 3 times
Teter 10:53.3 Teter 08:07.2
Wing It 10:59.5 Theta 08:12.4
Theta 11:01.8 Wing It 08:12.7
DG 11:07.9 DG 08:17.5
KapDelt 11:17.5 KapDelt 08:23.7
KapKapG 11:23.3 KapKappG 08:25.9
Army 11:25.0 Army 08:26.3
i think rj is winning because he's humping a d1 athlete. i'm jealous.
ReplyDeleteTraining with pros or not the gear on the bike is a great equalizer you just have to have cardio not strenght.
ReplyDeleteI believe Rj came in 6th (?) in the 75 mile A's collegiate race at Lindsey Wilson earlier this season, with a strong sprint up an absolute monster of a hill to beat out some pro/1/2 caliber riders. I would say that gives checks to both the lungs and the legs on that young man.
ReplyDeleteJust looked up his results. He got 2nd in a Pro 1/2 crit in St. Louis a couple weeks ago. Best loser...sucks to suck dick head.
ReplyDeleteWest
With performance enhancement therapies anything is possible
ReplyDeletewhat do these graphs even mean?
ReplyDeleteSnu
Haha so apparently everyone in beta thinks Anderson is weird as fuck...which is probably why he sits alone doing these reports all the time.
ReplyDeleteSucks to suck,
-Sig chi
Depasse would cut his own grandmother off if he gave him better position
ReplyDeleteDepasse's grandmother could have beaten him in MNO today. Losing to SNU? Embarrassing...
ReplyDeleteSNU ANGRY. SNU DRINK. SNU DRINK BEER
ReplyDeleteSharp with the win in a turning of the tide coming out of turn 2 much like what happened against him last year! RJ second, Beta's rookie Craggie with 3rd.
ReplyDeleteZee
Sharp looked strong in the MnO, it was obvious that he had experience in it and it was pretty evident that RJ has not had a lot of practice in this particular event. However, as well all know, the race is a whole different ballgame compared to MnO
ReplyDeleteI agree to the last comment. Seems funny all this talk about RJ is more than likely started/continued by his own "anonymous" posts about himself and others.
ReplyDeleteRj is a fucking punk. Strong and very gifted rider but an asshole. Hope he wrecks cuz he's the reason west isn't riding. He can say he didn't have anything to do with it but I don't believe it for a second he'll do anything to win. Same thing last year with young; him and delts attended kiels meeting and got west this year.
ReplyDeleteIUSF still has Men's Spring Series wrong. Anyone have an update?
ReplyDelete6:12-you can call it inexperience on RJ's part if you like, but what I saw was a strong Steve Sharp set a blistering pace and then go into an entirely different gear for the win. Race day will be exciting!
ReplyDeleteSharp is top dog!
ReplyDeleteand sketchiest rider award goes to craggy from beta
ReplyDeleteor hutch.
ReplyDeleteCraggy looks jacked!
ReplyDeletewouldn't expect any less with green teaching him how to ride
ReplyDeleteOr Miles from Phi Psi. The kid can't stay upright on a bike. Pretty talented, but he crashed in ITTs and MNO. Avoid that wheel!
ReplyDeletedry track, everyone looked sketch
ReplyDelete-Beta
I mean cutters aren't any better they have caused every big wreck on the track this year and I heard they were in one yesterday as well.. sketch to def
ReplyDeleteLambda Chi caused about 4 wrecks in the preliminary rounds... odds are they or CSF cause the first big one on race day.
ReplyDeleteThis graph just reinforces the fact that there are some very undeserving teams in the race.
ReplyDelete10:43 -- Definitely a sketchy rookie at times, I'll be the first to say. The sandbox we were all riding in yesterday didn't help much either. I was just pumped to be out there with the big guns and win some sprints.
ReplyDeleteRJ has incredible horsepower but Sharp is damn good at positioning himself...I learned a lot just trying to follow his lines. Interesting day for a lot of teams...Let's look to team pursuit. Any matchup predictions?
-Kragie
Kragie is a boss for a rookie!
ReplyDeleteKraige has been good thus far but I think the real rookie story at the moment is Torrance from SigEp. 5th in ITTs and he's apparently only a freshman. Both him and Kraige will be fun to watch in the next few years
ReplyDeleteUh Smith!
ReplyDeleteSmith isn'ot a rookie, he rode for Wright Cycling his freshman year and is only "ineligble" this year. His top 5 time doesn't count towards Rookie of the Year.
ReplyDeleteI do believe he would qualify under people that will be fun to watch over the next few years.
ReplyDeleteisn't that Smith kid a pro? It was in the IDS. I think that's why he is ineligible.
ReplyDeleteAgain an astounding lack of knowlege
ReplyDelete